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Who will win the Lithuanian presidential runoff?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Gitanas Nauseda wins • 50%
Ingrida Simonyte wins • 50%
Official election results announced by the Lithuanian Central Electoral Commission
Story
Lithuania's Presidential Runoff Set for May 26: Nauseda vs Simonyte
May 13, 2024, 04:05 AM
In the recent Lithuanian presidential election, incumbent President Gitanas Nauseda and Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte are set to proceed to a runoff vote scheduled for May 26. Nauseda, who has been a vocal critic of Russia's Vladimir Putin, led the early vote count, positioning him closer to securing his second and final term. The election campaign has been notably influenced by security concerns in the Baltics amid Russia's ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
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1-5% • 25%
6-10% • 25%
11-15% • 25%
16-20% • 25%
Nauseda 40-50% • 25%
Nauseda 50-60% • 25%
Simonyte 20-30% • 25%
Simonyte 30-40% • 25%
Homeland Union strengthens • 33%
Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union gains more seats • 33%
Social Democratic Party of Lithuania gains influence • 34%
Below 30% • 25%
30% to 60% • 25%
Above 60% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ruslan Stefanchuk • 33%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy • 33%
Other candidate • 34%
Major impact favoring Nauseda • 25%
Minor impact favoring Nauseda • 25%
Major impact favoring Simonyte • 25%
Minor impact favoring Simonyte • 25%
Fidesz • 25%
New Challenger • 25%
Other Party • 25%
No Majority • 25%
Stronger EU alignment • 33%
Increased NATO support • 33%
Balanced approach to both • 34%
Pro-independence candidate wins • 33%
Pro-China candidate wins • 33%
Centrist candidate wins • 33%