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Who will control the Gaza Strip following the proposed exchange by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hamas retains control • 25%
Israel gains control • 25%
Joint control • 25%
Other entity gains control • 25%
Official statements from Israel, Hamas, or credible news sources
Story
Israel Offers Safe Passage to Yahya Sinwar in Exchange for 101 Hostages
Sep 11, 2024, 08:22 AM
Israel has proposed offering Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar safe passage out of Gaza in exchange for the release of 101 hostages held by the group and for Hamas to relinquish control of the Gaza Strip. This proposal comes amid ongoing efforts by the US, Qatar, and Egypt to broker a new cease-fire agreement. Israel’s chief negotiator, Gal Hirsch, emphasized the country's readiness to provide safe passage to Sinwar and his family during an interview with Bloomberg. Doubts remain about whether the two sides can reach a cease-fire accord.
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Controlled by Hamas • 25%
Controlled by a coalition government • 25%
Controlled by an international body • 25%
Controlled by Israel • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Israeli government • 25%
Joint control • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Joint control • 25%
Other • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Palestinian Authority • 25%
IDF • 25%
Other • 25%
Hamas retains control • 25%
Palestinian Authority gains control • 25%
New political entity emerges • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Palestinian Authority • 25%
Israel • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
United States-trained security force • 25%
Palestinian Authority • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Hamas retains control • 25%
Fatah takes control • 25%
UN-administered governance • 25%
Other entity takes control • 25%
US-trained security force • 25%
Israeli Defense Forces • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Other • 25%
