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Who will be identified as responsible for the Ukrainian missile strike on the Conro Trader ferry by December 31, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukrainian Armed Forces • 25%
Ukrainian paramilitary groups • 25%
Unidentified group • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the Ukrainian government or international investigation bodies
Story
Ferry Sinks at Kavkaz Port After Ukrainian Strike, Kerch Crossing Closed
Aug 23, 2024, 08:57 AM
A ferry named 'Conro Trader' sank in the waters of the port of Kavkaz following a Ukrainian missile strike, according to the operational headquarters of Kuban. The ferry, which was carrying 30 fuel tanks and up to 5 crew members, suffered significant damage leading to its sinking. The Russian Ministry of Transport has announced that the Kerch ferry crossing, which connects Crimea with mainland Russia, is temporarily closed due to the damage. Satellite images reveal substantial infrastructure damage at the Kavkaz port, and the ferry service is suspended until further notice.
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Russian Military • 25%
Separatist Forces • 25%
Ukrainian Military (accidental) • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Russia • 25%
Third-party group • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Russian military • 25%
Pro-Russian separatists • 25%
Ukrainian military • 25%
Other • 25%
Russian government • 25%
Ukrainian government • 25%
Third-party investigation • 25%
No party takes responsibility • 25%
Ukraine held responsible • 33%
Russia held responsible • 33%
No conclusive evidence • 34%
China • 25%
India • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukrainian government • 25%
Non-state actors • 25%
Internal sabotage • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Confirmed Russian military target • 25%
Confirmed civilian target • 25%
Mixed target • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Internal Russian group • 25%
Other foreign entity • 25%
Unidentified • 25%