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Which major trade partner will first respond to U.S. tariffs under Howard Lutnick by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
China • 25%
European Union • 25%
Canada • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements or trade policy changes from international governments
Story
Trump Expected to Nominate Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary
Nov 19, 2024, 03:47 PM
President-elect Donald Trump is expected to nominate Howard Lutnick, the CEO of Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald, as his Secretary of Commerce. Lutnick, who has been a close ally to Trump, supports his vision for boosting U.S. manufacturing and imposing tariffs to encourage companies to return to America. He is also co-chair of the Trump transition team and has been involved in discussions about economic policy, including tariffs. His nomination reflects Trump's strategy to appoint business leaders to key economic positions.
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Similar markets
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Negotiation attempts • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Mexico • 25%
Canada • 25%
China • 25%
None • 25%
China • 25%
European Union • 25%
Mexico • 25%
Other • 25%
Mexico • 25%
Canada • 25%
China • 25%
None by this date • 25%
Mexico • 25%
Canada • 25%
China • 25%
None • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Opposed • 25%
Other • 25%
Mexico • 33%
Canada • 33%
China • 33%
None • 1%
Canada • 33%
Mexico • 33%
Neither • 34%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Hong Kong • 25%
Other • 25%
Impose retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Seek diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Strengthen trade with other partners • 25%