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Which demographic will swing most Republican in 2028 Election?
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Donald Trump•Imperial County•California•Hispanic•Democratic•Republican•Trump•Kamala Harris•Joe Biden•San Joaquin•San Bernardino•Fresno•Nevada•Florida•Virginia•South•Michigan•Harris•Biden
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hispanic Voters • 25%
South Asian Voters • 25%
18-29 Year Olds • 25%
Other • 25%
Exit polls and official election results published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Story
Trump Gains Hispanic Support, Wins Imperial County and Florida by +1.4M in 2024 Election
Dec 2, 2024, 12:39 AM
Donald Trump has achieved significant electoral gains in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, flipping key regions and demographics. Notably, Imperial County, California, which is 86% Hispanic and historically a Democratic stronghold, voted Republican for the first time since 1988. Trump secured 49.0% of the vote in Imperial County, narrowly defeating Kamala Harris, who received 48.4%. This marks a dramatic shift from 2020, when Joe Biden won the county with 61.1% of the vote. Other counties in California, including San Joaquin, San Bernardino, and Fresno, also shifted from Democratic to Republican in 2024, with California seeing an R+10 shift overall. Nevada, another key state, saw Trump win with a 3.1% margin, breaking a streak of Democratic victories since 2008. In Florida, Trump achieved a decisive margin of +1,427,087 votes. Virginia precincts also saw notable swings, with Trump gaining up to 24 points in some South Asian-majority areas. Additionally, Michigan's 18-29-year-old voters showed a notable swing toward Trump, with 50% supporting him compared to 47% for Harris, a reversal from Biden's 61% support in 2020. These results highlight a broader trend of Republican gains among Hispanic and working-class voters across the country.
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Hispanic voters • 25%
Youth voters (18-29) • 25%
Working-class voters • 25%
Other minority groups • 25%
Hispanic voters • 25%
African American voters • 25%
Young voters (18-29) • 25%
Other • 25%
Young voters (18-29) • 25%
Hispanic voters • 25%
African American voters • 25%
Suburban women • 25%
Hispanic voters • 25%
White educated voters • 25%
African American voters • 25%
Asian voters • 25%
Hispanic voters • 25%
Black voters • 25%
Asian voters • 25%
Young voters (18-29) • 25%
18-24 • 25%
25-30 • 25%
31-40 • 25%
41-50 • 25%
Urban Voters • 25%
Suburban Voters • 25%
Rural Voters • 25%
Young Voters (18-29) • 25%
Latinos • 25%
African Americans • 25%
Asian Americans • 25%
Other • 25%
Latino voters • 25%
Black voters • 25%
Asian voters • 25%
White voters • 25%
Young Voters • 25%
Asian American Voters • 25%
Hispanic Voters • 25%
African American Voters • 25%
Latino voters • 25%
Jewish voters • 25%
Blue-collar workers • 25%
Other • 25%
18-29 Age Group • 25%
30-44 Age Group • 25%
45-64 Age Group • 25%
65+ Age Group • 25%