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Which country will control Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Russia • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Both (split control) • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, major news outlets like BBC, CNN, or Reuters
Story
Russia-Ukraine War Since February 2022 Results in One Million Casualties
Sep 17, 2024, 08:12 AM
The Russia-Ukraine war, which has been ongoing for 2.5 years since February 2022, has resulted in approximately one million casualties, including both dead and wounded. According to confidential Ukrainian estimates from earlier this year, Ukraine has lost 80,000 troops and has had 400,000 wounded. Western intelligence estimates for Russian casualties vary, but some sources suggest around 200,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and 500,000 injured. The Wall Street Journal reported these figures, citing sources familiar with the assessments from both Ukrainian and Western intelligence services.
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Similar markets
Russia • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Split control • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine controls majority • 25%
Russia controls majority • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Russia • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Other • 25%
No control • 25%
Russia • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Split Control • 25%
Other • 25%
Russian forces retain control • 25%
Ukrainian forces recapture • 25%
Stalemate, no significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukraine • 33%
Russia • 33%
Remains contested • 34%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ukraine • 25%
Russia • 25%
Neither • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia controls Donetsk city • 25%
Ukraine controls Donetsk city • 25%
Russia controls Mariupol • 25%
Ukraine controls Mariupol • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Russia gains more territory • 25%
Ukraine gains more territory • 25%
Territory changes hands multiple times • 25%
Russia maintains majority control • 25%
Ukraine regains majority control • 25%
Stalemate with no majority control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%