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Which country will be the first where Adam Boehler negotiates a hostage release by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Afghanistan • 25%
Iran • 25%
Gaza • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements or credible news reports on the location of the hostage release
Story
Trump Appoints Adam Boehler, Abraham Accords Negotiator, as Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs
Dec 4, 2024, 04:15 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has appointed Adam Boehler as the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs, with the personal rank of Ambassador. Boehler, who previously served as a lead negotiator on the Abraham Accords team, has experience negotiating with some of the toughest figures globally, including the Taliban. His appointment aims to bring American hostages back home, although Trump did not specifically mention the hostages in Gaza. Boehler also serves on the board of the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum.
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Similar markets
All hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
European countries • 25%
African countries • 25%
Asian countries • 25%
Middle Eastern countries • 25%
Other • 25%
United States • 25%
Israel • 25%
Egypt • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
United States • 25%
No significant negotiations • 25%
Third-party country • 25%
Russia • 25%
No international involvement • 25%
European Union mediation • 25%
Arab League involvement • 25%
United Nations intervention • 25%
No Announcement • 25%
Israeli Government • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Third-party Mediator • 25%
Appointed to a new diplomatic role • 25%
Remains Special Envoy • 25%
Other • 25%
Returns to private sector • 25%
Qatar • 25%
United States • 25%
Egypt • 25%
Other • 25%