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Which candidate will secure the most electoral votes from battleground states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Donald Trump • 33%
Joe Biden • 33%
Tie • 34%
Official results from state election boards of battleground states
Story
NYT Needle Shows Trump Slightly Favored in 2024 Election, 276-262
Nov 6, 2024, 01:23 AM
The New York Times' election forecast tool, known as the 'needle,' has gone live, showing Donald Trump as the slight favorite to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Current projections indicate Trump leading in key battleground states, including Georgia (+1.5), North Carolina (+1.3), and Pennsylvania (+0.1). The needle estimates Trump securing 276 electoral votes to Joe Biden's 262. Additionally, Trump is given a 65% chance of winning Arizona, 66% in Georgia, and 57% in North Carolina. These projections, posted at 8:19 p.m. ET, are based on early voting data and are subject to change as more votes are counted. Trump is also estimated to win Pennsylvania with +0.2.
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