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Where will the US 2-year Treasury yield be by the end of September 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Below 3.5% • 25%
Between 3.5% and 3.75% • 25%
Between 3.76% and 4.0% • 25%
Above 4.0% • 25%
US Treasury yield data from financial news and market reports
Story
U.S. Job Openings Decline to 7.673 Million in July, Raising 50bps Rate Cut Expectations
Sep 4, 2024, 02:09 PM
The U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report for July showed a significant decline, with actual job openings at 7.673 million, falling short of the expected 8.1 million and the revised June figure of 7.91 million. This marks a notable decrease from the previous month's 8.184 million. The data indicates a weakening labor market, which has led to increased expectations of a more substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Market reactions included a downtick, and short-term interest-rate futures jumped as a 50 basis points rate cut in September is now seen as more likely than a 25 basis points cut. Layoffs also rose to 1.76 million, further contributing to concerns about the labor market and economic outlook. The odds of a 50-basis-point rate cut at the September 18 FOMC meeting have increased, with US 10-year and 2-year yields challenging the 3.75% level.
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Above 4% • 25%
Between 3.5% and 4% • 25%
Between 3% and 3.5% • 25%
Below 3% • 25%
Above 4% • 25%
Between 3.5% and 4% • 25%
Between 3% and 3.5% • 25%
Below 3% • 25%
Greater than 0.1% • 25%
Between 0% and 0.1% • 25%
Between -0.1% and 0% • 25%
Less than -0.1% • 25%
Below 4.50% • 25%
4.50% to 4.74% • 25%
4.75% to 4.99% • 25%
5.00% or higher • 25%
No inversion • 25%
0 to -0.25% • 25%
-0.25% to -0.5% • 25%
More than -0.5% • 25%
Significantly increase • 25%
Slightly increase • 25%
Remain stable • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Below 4.00% • 25%
4.00% to 4.49% • 25%
4.50% to 4.99% • 25%
5.00% or higher • 25%
Below 4% • 25%
4% to 5% • 25%
5% to 6% • 25%
Above 6% • 25%