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What will be the spread between 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields at the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Greater than 0.1% • 25%
Between 0% and 0.1% • 25%
Between -0.1% and 0% • 25%
Less than -0.1% • 25%
US Treasury yield data published on official government websites or financial news outlets
Story
US Yield Curve Turns Positive for First Time Since July 2022; 2Y at 3.69%, 10Y at 3.68%
Aug 5, 2024, 12:44 PM
The US yield curve has turned positive for the first time since July 2022, with the two-year yield falling below the ten-year yield. This shift follows a significant repricing of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid fears of an economic downturn. The two-year yield dropped by 70 basis points to 3.69% since last Wednesday, while the ten-year yield decreased by 40 basis points to 3.68% in the same period. The yield spread between the two maturities is now at 0.01%, marking the end of the inversion trend that had persisted for over a year. The spread had previously reached its lowest level since May 2023, with the disinversion trend bringing the 10Y2Y yield curve to -0.08%.
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Similar markets
No inversion • 25%
0 to -0.25% • 25%
-0.25% to -0.5% • 25%
More than -0.5% • 25%
Below 3.5% • 25%
Between 3.5% and 3.75% • 25%
Between 3.76% and 4.0% • 25%
Above 4.0% • 25%
Significantly increase • 25%
Slightly increase • 25%
Remain stable • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Below 4.50% • 25%
4.50% to 4.74% • 25%
4.75% to 4.99% • 25%
5.00% or higher • 25%
Below 4.00% • 25%
4.00% to 4.49% • 25%
4.50% to 4.99% • 25%
5.00% or higher • 25%
