National Hurricane Center and local news reports

Tropical Storm Rafael Forms, Expected Category 2 Hurricane; Warnings Issued for Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Florida Keys

Nov 4, 2024, 04:14 PM

Tropical Storm Rafael, the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, has formed in the Caribbean Sea, currently situated approximately 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Rafael will strengthen into a hurricane as early as Tuesday, potentially reaching Category 2 status with winds up to 100 mph as it moves northwest. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Jamaica, where conditions are expected to deteriorate late Monday night, and Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Watch is also in place for parts of western Cuba, which Rafael is expected to reach by Wednesday. Additionally, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, including the Dry Tortugas, with windy and squally conditions expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. The storm is forecast to bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches across the affected islands, raising the risk of mudslides. After crossing western Cuba, Rafael is projected to enter the Gulf of Mexico, where it may weaken due to wind shear and cooler waters. Forecasters are monitoring its potential impact on the U.S. Gulf Coast later in the week, though the storm's eventual path remains uncertain.