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Market
What will happen to U.S. military aid to Ukraine if Trump is re-elected in 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Aid continues as is • 25%
Aid is reduced • 25%
Aid is withdrawn completely • 25%
Aid is increased • 25%
Official U.S. government policy announcements or credible news outlets
Story
Ukraine Could Develop Nuclear Bomb Within Months if Trump Withdraws U.S. Aid: Zelensky
Nov 13, 2024, 05:20 PM
A briefing prepared for Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence suggests that Ukraine could develop a basic nuclear bomb within months if U.S. military support is withdrawn. This development is particularly relevant under the potential re-election of Donald Trump, who has indicated a possibility of cutting off military aid to Ukraine. The briefing paper, reported by The Times, highlights that Ukraine could use plutonium extracted from spent nuclear reactor fuel to construct a weapon similar to the one dropped on Nagasaki in 1945. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is reportedly considering this nuclear option as a deterrent against Russian aggression.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase in aid • 25%
Decrease in aid • 25%
Aid remains the same • 25%
No formal policy announced • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Aid halted • 25%
Aid reduced • 25%
Aid unchanged • 25%
Aid increased • 25%
Increase in aid • 25%
Decrease in aid • 25%
No change • 25%
Aid suspended • 25%
Lifts restrictions on long-range weapons • 25%
Increases military aid without lifting restrictions • 25%
Decreases military aid • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Yes, including F-16 jets • 25%
Yes, but excluding F-16 jets • 25%
No additional aid • 25%
Other • 25%
