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Market
Will Ukraine announce a nuclear weapons program by mid-2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Ukrainian government or credible news reports
Story
Ukraine Could Develop Nuclear Bomb Within Months if Trump Withdraws U.S. Aid: Zelensky
Nov 13, 2024, 05:20 PM
A briefing prepared for Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence suggests that Ukraine could develop a basic nuclear bomb within months if U.S. military support is withdrawn. This development is particularly relevant under the potential re-election of Donald Trump, who has indicated a possibility of cutting off military aid to Ukraine. The briefing paper, reported by The Times, highlights that Ukraine could use plutonium extracted from spent nuclear reactor fuel to construct a weapon similar to the one dropped on Nagasaki in 1945. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is reportedly considering this nuclear option as a deterrent against Russian aggression.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Military intervention considered • 25%
No significant action • 25%
