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What will China's reaction be to U.S. AI export controls by 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Retaliatory measures • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other response • 25%
Official statements from the Chinese government or major news outlets
Story
U.S. Lawmakers in Bipartisan Push for AI Export Controls Amid Trump's Superpower Comment
Jan 7, 2025, 11:12 PM
U.S. lawmakers, in a bipartisan effort, have called for stringent controls on the export of high-end artificial intelligence technology to prevent China from accessing it. This push comes as the Bureau of Industry and Security is expected to release a new framework on the matter. The urgency to limit China's access to AI technologies is driven by concerns over national security and the potential for these technologies to enhance China's military capabilities. President Donald Trump has emphasized the importance of maintaining U.S. leadership in AI, describing it as a 'superpower' in the race against China. Additionally, a technology industry group, representing companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, has urged the Biden administration to refrain from implementing last-minute rules that would control global access to AI chips, citing potential risks to U.S. leadership in AI.
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Acceleration due to alternatives • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
Significant slowdown • 25%
No noticeable impact • 25%
Legal action against US • 25%
Seeking international partnerships • 25%
Stockpiling restricted items • 25%
Developing domestic alternatives • 25%
File a WTO complaint • 25%
Implement reciprocal export restrictions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Negotiate with the US • 25%
Stricter export controls • 25%
Relaxed export controls • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Moderate negative impact • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
Significant negative impact • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase domestic production • 25%
Impose sanctions on US companies • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Seek alternative suppliers • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Retaliatory sanctions • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Retaliatory trade measures • 25%
Other response • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%