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What will be the US unemployment rate in Q3 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
<3.5% • 33%
3.5%-4.0% • 33%
>4.0% • 33%
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) quarterly reports
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Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Shows Easing in May, Core PCE at 2.6%
Jun 28, 2024, 12:59 PM
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, showed a significant easing in May. The core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.6% over the past 12 months, down from 2.8% in April. This marks the lowest annual increase since March 2021. FactSet anticipated this decline, which represents a 20-basis point drop from the prior month. On a month-to-month basis, core PCE inflation increased by 0.08%, slightly below the expected 0.1%. The overall PCE price index remained flat at 0% month-on-month. Economists see this as a positive sign, potentially supporting the Federal Reserve's case for lowering interest rates later this year. The 12-month core PCE is the official Fed inflation target, and this 2.6% reading is the lowest in 38 months.
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