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What will be the U.S. unemployment rate at the end of 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Below 3.5% • 25%
3.5% - 4% • 25%
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Above 4.5% • 25%
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4% to 4.5% • 25%
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Above 5% • 25%
Below 4% • 25%
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Between 5% and 6% • 25%
Above 6% • 25%
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment reports
Story
Powell: U.S. Election Will Not Affect Near-Term Fed Policy; Rates Cut by Quarter-Percentage Point
Nov 7, 2024, 07:39 PM
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the recent U.S. presidential election will have no immediate impact on the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve does not guess, speculate, or assume what policies will be enacted by the new administration. He noted that while the election itself will not affect near-term policy, it is possible that future policies from any administration could have long-term economic effects that might influence the Fed's dual mandate goals. Powell reiterated the difficulty in forecasting the economy beyond the near term and stressed the importance of not making assumptions about policy changes. Additionally, the Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter-percentage point.
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4.0% to 4.4% • 25%
4.5% to 4.9% • 25%
5.0% or higher • 25%
Below 4.0% • 25%
4.0% to 4.2% • 25%
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Below 4.0% • 25%
4.0% to 4.1% • 25%
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Below 3.9% • 25%
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Above 4.2% • 25%
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Above 4.5% • 25%
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4.0% to 4.1% • 25%
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Above 4.0% • 25%
Below 4.0% • 25%
4.0% - 4.2% • 25%
4.3% - 4.5% • 25%
Above 4.5% • 25%