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What will be the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP in fiscal year 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 5% • 25%
5% to 7% • 25%
7% to 9% • 25%
More than 9% • 25%
Official U.S. Treasury Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis reports
Story
U.S. Federal Budget Deficit Surges to Record $711 Billion in Q1 2025, Up 39% with $87 Billion December Shortfall
Jan 14, 2025, 09:04 PM
The U.S. federal budget deficit widened to a record $711 billion in the first three months of fiscal year 2025, marking a 39% increase from the $510 billion deficit recorded in the same period of the previous year. The December deficit alone was reported at $87 billion, a 33% decrease from the $129 billion deficit in December 2023. This surge in the deficit was driven by a combination of factors including rising financing costs, increased government spending, and declining tax receipts. The national debt has now surpassed $36 trillion, with interest on the debt totaling $308.4 billion in fiscal 2025, a 7% increase from the previous year. The government's outlays for the first quarter were 11% higher than a year ago, while receipts fell by 2%. The fiscal year 2025 is projected to see financing costs exceed $1.2 trillion, surpassing the previous year's record.
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More than 7.5% • 25%
Less than 5% • 25%
5% to 6.4% • 25%
6.5% to 7.5% • 25%
More than $2 trillion • 25%
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$1.5 trillion to $2 trillion • 25%
$1 trillion to $1.5 trillion • 25%
3.5% to 3.9% • 25%
4.5% or more • 25%
4% to 4.5% • 25%
Less than 3.5% • 25%
Less than 4% • 25%
4.6% to 5% • 25%
More than 5% • 25%
4% to 4.4% • 25%
3% to 4% • 25%
Less than 3% • 25%
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4% to 5% • 25%
$2.5 trillion to $3 trillion • 25%
Less than $2 trillion • 25%
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$2 trillion to $2.5 trillion • 25%
Below 5.4% • 25%
Above 6% • 25%
Between 5.4% and 6% • 25%
Exactly 5.4% • 25%
More than 7% • 25%
Less than 3% • 25%
3% to 5% • 25%
5% to 7% • 25%
1% to 3% • 25%
Below 1% • 25%
Above 5% • 25%
3% to 5% • 25%
2% to 3.99% of GDP • 25%
Less than 2% of GDP • 25%
6% or more of GDP • 25%
4% to 5.99% of GDP • 25%
Increase to 4-4.9% • 25%
Increase to 5% or more • 25%
Decrease below 3.5% • 25%
Remain at 3.5% • 25%