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What will be the status of the political crisis in Ecuador by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Crisis resolved • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
Escalation of crisis • 25%
Government change • 25%
Reports from international political analysts or major news outlets
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Ecuador President Noboa Appoints Sariha Moya as Interim Vice President via Decree 492 Until January 22 Amid Political Crisis
Jan 2, 2025, 08:16 PM
Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa has appointed Sariha Moya as the country's new vice president through Decree 492, effective immediately. This decision comes amid a political crisis and ongoing tensions between Noboa and the previous vice president, Verónica Abad, who is currently absent. Noboa's administration has indicated that Abad is not fulfilling her duties, leading to Moya's designation, which is set to last until January 22, 2025, or until Abad returns to the Ecuadorian embassy in Turkey. The appointment reflects Noboa's efforts to stabilize his government during a period of political strife.
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Compensation to families • 25%
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Military reform • 25%
President Noboa faces impeachment • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Vice President Abad resigns • 25%
Reconciliation and cooperation • 25%
Protests lead to Morales' return to political prominence • 25%
Protests lead to increased government crackdown • 25%
Protests dissipate without significant impact • 25%
Protests lead to government concessions • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Ongoing political stalemate • 25%
New elections held • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
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New elections announced • 25%
González assumes presidency • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Calls for new elections • 25%
Recognition of González Urrutia • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Sanctions against Maduro's government • 25%
Other • 25%
Verónica Abad • 25%
Rafael Correa • 25%
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Political reconciliation • 25%
Social welfare programs • 25%
Economic reform • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%