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What will be the status of the IMF-supported program after the Sri Lankan election?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Program continues without changes • 25%
Program continues with minor renegotiations • 25%
Program continues with major renegotiations • 25%
Program is terminated • 25%
Official Sri Lankan government announcements, IMF statements, reputable financial news sources
Story
Sri Lanka Reaches Agreement to Restructure $114 Billion Debt as Dollar Bonds Rise 1 Cent
Sep 20, 2024, 02:52 AM
Sri Lanka has reached an agreement in principle with bondholders to restructure its $114 billion debt load, just days before the country heads to elections. The restructuring deal, which includes approximately $17.5 billion of external commercial debt, aims to align with the parameters of the IMF-supported program. The government expects formal confirmation from IMF staff that the agreement is consistent with the program's requirements. Despite this progress, the upcoming election has raised concerns about the continuity of the IMF program and the potential for renegotiation of terms by key candidates. Sri Lanka's dollar bonds have seen a rise of more than 1 cent, bidding at 53-53.9 cents, following the president's pledge to finalize the restructuring deal before the election. The government has issued a notice to bondholders regarding the agreement.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Approved with no conditions • 25%
Approved with additional conditions • 25%
Postponed • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Loan secured with Bitcoin policy change • 25%
Loan secured without Bitcoin policy change • 25%
Loan not secured • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
IMF resumes full engagement • 25%
IMF resumes limited engagement • 25%
IMF cancels engagement • 25%
IMF postpones decision • 25%
Majority for Wickremesinghe's party • 25%
Majority for Main Opposition • 25%
Hung council • 25%
Other • 25%