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What will be the status of Palestinian statehood in relation to Israel-Saudi normalization by end of 2025?
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Israel•Saudi Arabia•Haaretz•Palestinian•Saudi•Mohammed bin Salman•Gaza•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•MBS•Hamas
Resolution / Starting Odds
Explicit recognition of Palestinian statehood • 25%
Vague commitment to Palestinian statehood • 25%
No commitment to Palestinian statehood • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the governments of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Palestine
Story
Israel and Saudi Arabia Reach Normalization Breakthrough with Vague Commitment to Palestinian Statehood, Despite Saudi Denial
Dec 17, 2024, 06:35 PM
Israel and Saudi Arabia have reportedly reached a breakthrough in their normalization talks, according to Haaretz. The agreement involves Israel providing a vague commitment to a 'path towards Palestinian statehood' rather than an explicit recognition of a Palestinian state, as per Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's (MBS) stance. This development is believed to be tied to a potential ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza, which could also involve Saudi Arabia in the reconstruction efforts. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes that MBS's limited interest in Palestinian statehood and the vague commitment will secure domestic and political support for a ceasefire deal with Hamas. However, a Saudi official has denied the existence of such a breakthrough, stating that Saudi Arabia's commitment to an independent Palestinian state remains unchanged and that normalization with Israel is contingent on ending the war in Gaza.
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Condition met and relations established • 25%
Condition met but no relations established • 25%
Condition not met and no relations established • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful establishment of a Palestinian state • 25%
Partial recognition of Palestinian state • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Other • 25%
Establishes relations unconditionally • 25%
Establishes relations with conditions met • 25%
No establishment of relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Progress in peace talks • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Unilateral actions by Israel • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Detailed Roadmap • 25%
Vague Commitment • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Public Commitment to Two-State Solution • 25%
Continued Stalemate • 25%
Alternative Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Unsuccessful ceasefire • 25%
Two-state solution agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Recognition of East Jerusalem as capital • 25%
Financial aid to Palestine • 25%
Hosting peace talks • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%