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What will be the state of diplomatic relations between Somalia and Ethiopia by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Formal alliance • 25%
Official announcements from the Somali and Ethiopian governments or major news outlets
Story
Somalia and Ethiopia Restore Diplomatic Ties After Turkey-Brokered Deal
Jan 11, 2025, 01:53 PM
Somalia and Ethiopia have agreed to restore and enhance their bilateral relations through full diplomatic representation in their respective capitals. This decision follows a visit by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to Addis Ababa at the invitation of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The leaders met to strengthen bilateral relations and advance shared priorities, marking a significant step towards improving relations strained by a year of tensions over Ethiopia's plans to build a naval base in the breakaway Somali region of Somaliland. The agreement builds on a peace deal brokered by Turkey last month, which aimed to resolve the dispute and facilitate technical negotiations between the two nations.
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Improved relations • 25%
Formal alliance formed • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Turkey • 25%
United States • 25%
China • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Formal peace agreement signed • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Military cooperation established • 25%
Economic cooperation established • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Highly involved • 25%
Minimally involved • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Moderately involved • 25%
Other • 25%
No summit held • 25%
Yes, bilateral only • 25%
Yes, with multiple countries • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
No impact • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
Major positive impact • 25%
Minor positive impact • 25%