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What will be the resolution of the CIO's jurisdictional challenge by May 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
CIO confirmed to have jurisdiction • 25%
CIO denied jurisdiction • 25%
Jurisdiction shared with another body • 25%
No decision reached • 25%
Court decisions or official legal announcements
Story
President Yoon Faces Arrest Warrant After Defying Third Summons in Martial Law Investigation
Dec 29, 2024, 01:15 AM
On December 29, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol defied a third summons from the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) for questioning over allegations of involvement in plans to declare martial law and incite internal disturbances. Despite the CIO's three requests for his appearance, Yoon has neither complied nor submitted a lawyer's appointment letter. His legal team argues that the CIO lacks jurisdiction over treason-related investigations. With Yoon's repeated refusals, the CIO is considering issuing an arrest warrant—a standard procedure after three ignored summons—to forcibly secure his attendance.
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Authority Denied • 25%
No Resolution • 25%
Authority Confirmed • 25%
Authority Limited • 25%
Modified • 25%
Upheld • 25%
Struck Down • 25%
No Challenge • 25%
Appeal to Supreme Court • 25%
No further actions • 25%
Seek alternative legal actions • 25%
Accept the decision • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant rulings • 25%
Partially Overturned • 25%
Fully Overturned • 25%
Upheld • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Challenge dismissed • 25%
Challenge upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Amendment partially invalidated • 25%
Challenges lead to recounts • 25%
No challenges filed • 25%
Challenges dismissed • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Deal fully overturned • 33%
Deal partially modified • 33%
Deal upheld • 34%