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Market
What will be the reaction of major U.S. allies to Trump's tariffs by September 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Diplomatic protests • 25%
Negotiations • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Statements from governments of major U.S. allies
Story
Trump Considers National Economic Emergency Using IEEPA to Justify Universal Tariffs on Allies and Adversaries
Jan 8, 2025, 12:26 PM
President-elect Donald Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for imposing a broad range of universal tariffs on both allies and adversaries, according to reports from CNN. This move would utilize the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA), which allows a president to manage imports during a national emergency. Trump's team is exploring this option as part of his strategy to reset the global balance of trade in his second term. No final decision has been made yet, and Trump's advisers are also evaluating other legal avenues, such as sections 338 and 301 of U.S. trade law, to support the proposed tariffs. The consideration of such an emergency declaration has led to fluctuations in financial markets, with stock futures weakening and the U.S. dollar gaining value against other currencies.
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Similar markets
Take no immediate action • 25%
Negotiate a trade agreement • 25%
Impose retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Increase US oil and gas imports • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase US energy imports • 25%
Do nothing • 25%
File a WTO complaint • 25%
Negotiate alternative trade terms • 25%
Implemented with full effect • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Canada • 25%
Other • 25%
China • 25%
European Union • 25%
No action • 25%
Other • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Negotiations • 25%
Negotiations initiated • 25%
No response • 25%
Other economic measures • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
China • 25%
Other • 25%
Mexico • 25%
European Union • 25%
Other • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Minor fluctuations • 25%
Stable • 25%
Major increase • 25%
Major decrease • 25%
Mostly positive • 25%
Mostly negative • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Seek WTO intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Impose retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Negotiate with U.S. • 25%