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What will be the public response in Iran to imprisonment threat by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased public protests • 25%
No significant public response • 25%
Increased social media activity • 25%
Increased emigration • 25%
Surveys or reports from international media and human rights organizations
Story
Iran Threatens Citizens with 1-10 Years in Prison for Sharing Footage of Israeli Strikes on 20 Military Sites
Oct 26, 2024, 11:40 AM
The Iranian government has issued a stern warning to its citizens, threatening prison sentences ranging from 1 to 10 years for those who share footage of recent Israeli airstrikes with Western media. This move, attributed to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reflects the regime's ongoing efforts to control information and suppress dissent following Israel's strikes on 20 key military sites in Iran. The regime claims to have successfully repelled these strikes, yet simultaneously seeks to penalize individuals who document and share evidence of these military actions, highlighting a contradiction in its narrative of military strength and its fear of external scrutiny.
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Protests • 25%
Public support statements • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other reactions • 25%
Mass release of political prisoners • 25%
Increased detentions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Implementation of reforms • 25%
UN issues a resolution condemning Iran • 25%
US imposes new sanctions on Iran • 25%
EU calls for diplomatic talks • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Widespread protests • 33%
Public support without protests • 33%
Minimal public reaction • 34%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Official condemnations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Increased military spending • 25%
Policy shift towards diplomacy • 25%
Leadership changes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Protests against U.S. • 25%
Support for government • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant public response • 25%
Deny wrongdoing • 25%
Defend the execution • 25%
Announce reforms • 25%
No official response • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other • 25%
No protests • 25%
Small protests • 25%
Moderate protests • 25%
Large protests • 25%
Strong condemnation and action • 25%
Moderate condemnation • 25%
Minimal reaction • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation from UN • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic isolation • 25%
No significant response • 25%