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How many individuals will be arrested in Iran for sharing footage by end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
No arrests made • 25%
1-10 arrests made • 25%
11-50 arrests made • 25%
More than 50 arrests made • 25%
Reports from international human rights organizations or credible news outlets
Story
Iran Threatens Citizens with 1-10 Years in Prison for Sharing Footage of Israeli Strikes on 20 Military Sites
Oct 26, 2024, 11:40 AM
The Iranian government has issued a stern warning to its citizens, threatening prison sentences ranging from 1 to 10 years for those who share footage of recent Israeli airstrikes with Western media. This move, attributed to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reflects the regime's ongoing efforts to control information and suppress dissent following Israel's strikes on 20 key military sites in Iran. The regime claims to have successfully repelled these strikes, yet simultaneously seeks to penalize individuals who document and share evidence of these military actions, highlighting a contradiction in its narrative of military strength and its fear of external scrutiny.
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0-2 • 25%
3-5 • 25%
6-8 • 25%
More than 8 • 25%
0-10 • 25%
11-20 • 25%
21-30 • 25%
More than 30 • 25%
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No • 50%
Mass release of political prisoners • 25%
Increased detentions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Implementation of reforms • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Executed • 25%
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