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What will be the public perception of the threat from Iran by the end of 2024?
1
Resolution / Starting Odds
High threat • 25%
Moderate threat • 25%
Low threat • 25%
No threat • 25%
Public opinion polls, news reports
Story
Trump Accuses Iran of Assassination Attempts, Hacking Campaign, Threatens Severe Retaliation
Sep 25, 2024, 04:54 PM
Former President Donald Trump has publicly accused Iran of attempting to assassinate him, citing multiple failed attempts and ongoing threats. US intelligence agencies have briefed Trump and his campaign about specific threats from Iran, which Trump claims are real and imminent. Trump has responded by stating that the entire US military is on high alert and has promised severe retaliation against Iran if any harm comes to him or any US election candidate. He has also criticized the current administration for providing security to the Iranian president during his visit to the United Nations while Iran allegedly plots against him. Trump has also accused Iran of hacking his campaign and sharing information with Kamala Harris and Joe Biden. Trump has vowed to 'blow Iran to smithereens' if the threats continue.
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Increased suspicion of Iran • 25%
Decreased suspicion of Iran • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Public opinion divided • 25%
UN issues a resolution condemning Iran • 25%
US imposes new sanctions on Iran • 25%
EU calls for diplomatic talks • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increase in support • 25%
Decrease in support • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
Highly effective • 25%
Moderately effective • 25%
Not effective • 25%
No clear consensus • 25%
De-escalation and talks • 25%
Continued military skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation to conflict • 25%
Resolution through diplomacy • 25%
Continued verbal threats • 25%
De-escalation without conflict • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Increased skirmishes • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
Military confrontation • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Support for Trump • 25%
Condemnation of Trump • 25%
Calls for de-escalation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military action • 25%
Cyberattack • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No significant response • 25%
UN sanctions on Iran • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts for peace • 25%
Military support for Israel • 25%
No significant international action • 25%