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What will be the primary reason for the next North Korean defection to South Korea by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Political reasons • 25%
Economic reasons • 25%
Personal safety • 25%
Other • 25%
Statements from defectors or major news outlets
Story
North Korean Soldier Defects to South Korea, Second Incident in Eastern Part
Aug 20, 2024, 01:11 AM
A North Korean soldier has defected to South Korea, crossing the heavily militarized border in the eastern part of the Korean peninsula. The defection occurred early on Tuesday, as confirmed by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). This incident marks the second suspected defection this month. There is speculation that the recent resumption of loudspeaker broadcasts along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) may have influenced frontline North Korean soldiers to defect.
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Dissatisfaction with conditions • 25%
Fear of combat • 25%
Political defection • 25%
Other motives • 25%
Increased military presence at the border • 25%
Diplomatic protest to South Korea • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Military Actions • 25%
Diplomatic Disputes • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
Cyber Attacks • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Diplomatic Action • 25%
No Response • 25%
Military alliance • 25%
Economic aid • 25%
Political leverage • 25%
Other • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Diplomatic Engagement • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
No Further Action • 25%
Increased restrictions • 25%
Policy relaxation • 25%
No change • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Increase in nuclear arsenal • 25%
Economic reform • 25%
Military exercise • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%