Loading...
Market
What will be the primary outcome of the September 2024 airstrike on Hezbollah's headquarters?
2
Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Hezbollah•Beirut•Lebanon•New York City•Netanyahu•United Nations General Assembly•Dahiya•Hassan Nasrallah•Nasrallah•New York•Yoav Gallant
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hassan Nasrallah killed • 25%
Other high-ranking officials killed • 25%
No significant casualties • 25%
Unclear outcome • 25%
Credible news sources like Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera, official statements from Israeli or Lebanese government
Story
Netanyahu Approves Airstrike on Hezbollah Leader Nasrallah from New York
Sep 27, 2024, 04:45 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu personally approved an airstrike targeting Hezbollah's leadership in Beirut, Lebanon. The approval was given from New York City, where Netanyahu was attending the United Nations General Assembly. The strike targeted Hezbollah's headquarters in the Dahiya district and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, although it remains unclear if Nasrallah was killed. Netanyahu's office released photos showing him in a New York hotel room at the time of approval, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and high-ranking military officials monitoring the operation.
View original story
Similar markets
Increased Hezbollah attacks • 25%
Hezbollah leadership restructuring • 25%
International diplomatic fallout • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Hezbollah leadership casualties • 25%
Significant infrastructure damage • 25%
Increased Hezbollah attacks • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Nasrallah killed • 25%
Nasrallah injured • 25%
Nasrallah unharmed • 25%
Outcome unclear • 25%
Severe disruption • 25%
Moderate disruption • 25%
Minor disruption • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Nasrallah confirmed dead • 25%
Nasrallah confirmed injured • 25%
Nasrallah confirmed uninjured • 25%
No confirmation • 25%
High-ranking militant killed • 25%
Civilian casualties • 25%
No significant casualties • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful assassination • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No impact • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Rocket launch sites • 25%
Hezbollah leadership • 25%
Supply routes • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant military retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant reduction in capabilities • 25%
Minor reduction in capabilities • 25%
No noticeable impact • 25%
Increase in capabilities • 25%
Significant Hezbollah infrastructure destroyed • 25%
Minimal damage to Hezbollah infrastructure • 25%
Civilian casualties reported • 25%
No significant outcomes reported • 25%
Significantly weakened • 25%
Moderately weakened • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Strengthened • 25%