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What will be the outcome of U.S. sanctions on ICC personnel by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Sanctions imposed and ICC complies • 25%
Sanctions imposed and ICC resists • 25%
Sanctions not imposed • 25%
Other • 25%
Official U.S. government announcements, ICC statements, or credible news outlets
Story
Trump Plans Sanctions Against ICC Over Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders, Targeting Over 90% of African Indictments by January 20
Jan 4, 2025, 05:15 PM
President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to impose sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) in response to its recent arrest warrants for Israeli leaders. These sanctions, which could target individual ICC personnel including judges, are expected to be announced shortly after Trump's inauguration on January 20. The ICC's actions have raised concerns about selective justice, as over 90% of its indictments have historically targeted African leaders. This situation has sparked debates regarding the court's legitimacy and its role as an impartial arbiter in international law.
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Similar markets
Condemnation • 25%
Support • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Russia imposes sanctions • 25%
EU imposes sanctions • 25%
No major sanctions imposed • 25%
China imposes sanctions • 25%
Condemnation of U.S. actions • 25%
Legal action against the U.S. • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other response • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
General support • 25%
Minimal reaction • 25%
Arrest warrants remain but not executed • 25%
Arrest warrants withdrawn • 25%
Arrest warrants executed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No change in funding • 25%
Complete funding cut • 25%
Partial funding cut • 25%
Funding increased • 25%
Support ICC decision • 25%
No official response • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Condemn ICC decision • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
