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What will be the outcome of US military support policy towards Ukraine by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in military support • 25%
Decrease in military support • 25%
No change in policy • 25%
Suspension of military support • 25%
US government policy announcements or defense department releases
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Putin Lowers Nuclear Use Threshold, Allows Response to Conventional Attacks in New Doctrine
Nov 19, 2024, 09:42 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved an updated nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for Russia's use of nuclear weapons. Signed as Decree No. 991 and published on the government's website, the new doctrine titled 'On the Approval of the Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence' states that Russia may consider using nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack on Russia or its allies, including Belarus, by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear power. Such aggression will be considered a joint attack on Russia. The decision to use nuclear weapons will be made personally by Putin. This development follows the United States' decision to allow Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia using American missiles and incorporates changes first announced by Putin in September.
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Increase in aid • 25%
Maintain current aid levels • 25%
Decrease in aid • 25%
Complete cessation of aid • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increase support • 25%
Maintain current level • 25%
Decrease support • 25%
End support • 25%
Aid completed successfully • 25%
Aid partially completed • 25%
Aid halted due to political changes • 25%
Aid redirected to other priorities • 25%
Lifts restrictions on long-range weapons • 25%
Increases military aid without lifting restrictions • 25%
Decreases military aid • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Aid halted • 25%
Aid reduced • 25%
Aid unchanged • 25%
Aid increased • 25%
Increase • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No change • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increase in support • 25%
Decrease in support • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in military aid • 25%
Decrease in military aid • 25%
No change in military aid • 25%
Complete halt of military aid • 25%
Increase in military aid • 25%
Decrease in military aid • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Shift to non-lethal aid • 25%
Increase in military aid • 25%
Decrease in military aid • 25%
No change • 25%
Reallocation of resources • 25%
Significant Ukrainian advantage • 25%
Moderate Ukrainian advantage • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant Russian advantage • 25%