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What will be the outcome of U.S.-Iran relations during Trump's second term?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Official government statements and credible news reports
Story
Trump Declines to Rule Out War with Iran, Criticizes Biden's Ukraine Policy, Seeks Peace
Dec 12, 2024, 08:00 PM
In an interview with Time magazine, President-elect Donald Trump declined to rule out the possibility of a war with Iran during his second term, stating, “anything can happen” due to the volatile situation in the Middle East. Trump also criticized the Biden administration's decision to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-made long-range missiles to strike Russian territory, calling it 'crazy' and accusing the current administration of escalating the conflict. He suggested that he would leverage U.S. support for Ukraine to negotiate peace with Russia, emphasizing that ending the war would benefit both parties. Trump's comments were made in the context of his being named Time's Person of the Year for 2024.
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Improved relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Reimposition of sanctions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Uncertain or mixed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Relations improve with diplomatic talks • 25%
Relations remain unchanged • 25%
Relations deteriorate with new sanctions • 25%
Relations deteriorate with military conflict • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations remain unchanged • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations break down • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Public assurance from Iran • 25%
No further communication • 25%
Tensions escalate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Expulsions • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
De-escalation and improved relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%