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What will be the outcome of UK's diplomatic efforts against Russia by May 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Joint EU sanctions • 25%
Increased EU military readiness • 25%
EU diplomatic condemnation • 25%
No unified EU action • 25%
Reports from EU meetings or official EU statements
Story
UK Accuses Russia of Reckless Sabotage Campaign, Points to Putin's Authorization
Nov 29, 2024, 11:36 AM
The UK's intelligence community has accused Russia of engaging in a 'staggeringly reckless' sabotage campaign across Europe, targeting Europe's defense industrial base (DIB) as part of a broader hybrid war strategy. Jonathan Allen, the UK's most senior official responsible for Russia policy, has stated that he believes Vladimir Putin personally authorized the 2018 Salisbury poisonings, marking a direct accusation against the Russian president. Additionally, the UK's foreign intelligence chief has highlighted Iran's nuclear ambitions as a significant long-term threat, suggesting that while Russia's actions are immediate and reckless, Iran's pose a different kind of danger.
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Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Further deterioration • 25%
Severance of diplomatic ties • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Further deterioration • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Decreased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Further expulsions • 25%
New sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic talks • 25%
No further action • 25%
Expulsion of Russian diplomats • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Travel bans • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Sanctions remain • 25%
Sanctions lifted • 25%
Sanctions expanded • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
UN Resolution • 25%
EU Sanctions • 25%
NATO Military Exercises • 25%
No Coordinated Response • 25%
