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What will be the outcome of the U.S. government's decision on the $830 million arms sale to Israel by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Arms sale proceeds without pause • 25%
Arms sale is paused • 25%
Arms sale is canceled • 25%
Arms sale is reduced • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or relevant authorities
Story
Blinken and Biden Contradict U.S. Agencies on Israel Blocking Aid to Gaza, $830M in Arms at Stake
Sep 24, 2024, 01:13 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Congress that the Israeli government was not restricting humanitarian aid, despite contrary findings from two U.S. government bodies. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the State Department's Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration had determined that Israel had deliberately blocked aid, including food and medicine, from reaching Gaza, where millions starve. These findings led USAID officials to recommend pausing additional arms sales to Israel. However, Blinken's statements to Congress allowed military assistance to continue flowing to Israel. Emails obtained by ProPublica reveal that the head of the State Department’s refugees bureau suggested freezing $830 million earmarked for weapons and bombs to Israel. President Biden also publicly supported Blinken's stance.
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No significant changes • 25%
US Congress intervenes • 25%
UN sanctions imposed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
All shipments completed • 33%
Some shipments delayed • 33%
Some shipments cancelled • 33%
Sale of advanced weapons approved • 25%
Sale of advanced weapons denied • 25%
No significant sales changes • 25%
New defense agreements • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Resolution Passed • 25%
Resolution Rejected • 25%
No Vote Held • 25%
Resolution Tabled • 25%
Lifted entirely • 25%
Remains partial • 25%
Becomes full embargo • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete lifting of restrictions • 33%
Partial lifting of restrictions • 33%
No change in restrictions • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Strengthened US-Israel relations • 25%
Increased tension in Middle East • 25%
Congressional backlash • 25%
No significant impact • 25%