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What will be the outcome of the Ultra Galaxy salvage operation by August 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successfully refloated, no oil spill • 25%
Successfully refloated, minor oil spill • 25%
Successfully refloated, major oil spill • 25%
Not refloated • 25%
Official reports from the South African Maritime Safety Authority (SAMSA) or news outlets
Story
South African Authorities Rush to Prevent Oil Spill from Grounded Cargo Ship Ultra Galaxy
Jul 11, 2024, 01:24 PM
The South African Maritime Safety Authority has dispatched two salvage tugs to save the cargo ship, Ultra Galaxy, which has run aground off the coast of Brand se Baai on the west coast of the Western Cape. Authorities are rushing to prevent a potential oil spill and pollution from the grounded vessel, raising oil spill concerns. Salvage operations were in high gear on Thursday to address the situation.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Extreme weather conditions • 25%
Human error • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Fully successful • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Abandoned • 25%
All objectives met • 25%
Some objectives met • 25%
No objectives met • 25%
Mission aborted • 25%
Successful launch and mission • 25%
Launch postponed • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Mission failure post-launch • 25%
No legal actions • 25%
Fines imposed • 25%
Lawsuits filed • 25%
Both fines and lawsuits • 25%
Successful rescue by SpaceX • 25%
Rescue delayed beyond February 2025 • 25%
Rescue attempt fails • 25%
Alternative rescue mission initiated • 25%
All crew rescued safely • 25%
Some crew rescued, some missing • 25%
All crew missing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Detained • 25%
Escorted out of Malaysian waters • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other • 25%
All found alive • 25%
Some found alive, some deceased • 25%
All found deceased • 25%
None found • 25%