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What will be the outcome of the UAE-France defense cooperation by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Resumed with modifications • 25%
Resumed without modifications • 25%
Permanently canceled • 25%
Indefinitely suspended • 25%
Official announcements from the UAE or France, major news outlets
Story
UAE Freezes $10B Fighter Jet Deal with France After Durov's Arrest
Aug 27, 2024, 10:30 PM
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has frozen a significant contract with France to purchase 80 fighter jets, reportedly valued at $10 billion, following the arrest of Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram. The decision has raised concerns about the future of defense cooperation between the two nations. Durov, who is a citizen of the UAE and reportedly a close friend of the UAE's Deputy Prime Minister Hamdan Al Maktoum, was arrested recently, leading to this drastic move by the UAE. The suspension of this deal, which involves Rafale fighter jets, could have substantial financial implications for France, with some reports suggesting losses as high as $17 billion.
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Agreement on Troop Deployment • 25%
Agreement on PMC Deployment • 25%
Agreement on Training Support • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
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No • 50%
Improved relations • 25%
Unchanged relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Decreased support • 25%
No change • 25%
Withdrawal of support • 25%
No significant action • 33%
Airstrikes only • 33%
Full-scale military operation including ground support • 33%
Increase in military support • 25%
Decrease in military support • 25%
Continuation of current support level • 25%
Complete halt of military support • 25%
Significant change in conflict dynamics • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
De-escalation of conflict • 25%
Escalation to wider conflict • 25%
Creation of a new European defense initiative • 25%
Increased funding for joint defense projects • 25%
No significant policy changes • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Comprehensive Defense Treaty • 25%
Modest Military Cooperation Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
No Change • 25%
Deteriorated Relations • 25%
Severe Diplomatic Fallout • 25%