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What will be the outcome of the potential Russian air attack warning on Kyiv on November 20, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No attack occurs • 25%
Minor attack with limited damage • 25%
Significant attack causing major damage • 25%
Attack thwarted or intercepted • 25%
Reports from major news agencies and official statements from the U.S. State Department or Ukrainian government
Story
U.S. Temporarily Closes Kyiv Embassy, Warns Citizens of Potential Russian Air Attack on November 20
Nov 20, 2024, 06:43 AM
The U.S. State Department has announced the temporary closure of the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, out of an abundance of caution, after receiving specific information about a potential significant air attack by Russia on November 20. Embassy employees have been instructed to shelter in place, and U.S. citizens in Ukraine are advised to identify air raid shelters and be prepared to immediately seek shelter if air alerts are announced.
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Similar markets
No attack occurs • 25%
Minor attack with minimal damage • 25%
Moderate attack with significant damage • 25%
Major attack with severe damage • 25%
Military infrastructure • 25%
Civilian infrastructure • 25%
Government buildings • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Successful strike causing damage • 25%
Successful strike with no damage • 25%
Intercepted by Russian forces • 25%
No further attacks • 25%
Thwarted with no damage • 25%
Thwarted with minor damage • 25%
Successful with minor damage • 25%
Successful with major damage • 25%
Significant damage to infrastructure • 25%
Minimal damage to infrastructure • 25%
No significant damage reported • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
More than 90% drones intercepted, no missiles intercepted • 25%
More than 90% drones intercepted, at least one missile intercepted • 25%
Less than 90% drones intercepted, no missiles intercepted • 25%
Less than 90% drones intercepted, at least one missile intercepted • 25%
