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What will be the outcome of the political row in Israel by end of 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
No significant political change • 33%
Resignation of a government official • 33%
New policy changes regarding detentions • 33%
Israeli government announcements, media reports
Story
Israel Releases Director of Gaza’s Largest Hospital After Seven Months on Monday
Jul 1, 2024, 11:40 AM
Israel has released Mohammad Abu Salmiya, the director of Gaza's largest hospital, Al Shifa, on Monday after holding him for more than seven months without charge or trial. Abu Salmiya had been detained on suspicion of collaboration with Hamas, with allegations that the hospital was used as a Hamas command center. His release has sparked a political row in Israel. Abu Salmiya alleges he was abused during his detention. Dozens of other Palestinians were also returned to Gaza for treatment.
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Netanyahu remains as Prime Minister • 25%
Netanyahu steps down • 25%
Netanyahu is ousted • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Policy change • 25%
Government resignation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains intact • 25%
Collapses and new elections called • 25%
Collapses but new coalition formed • 25%
Other significant political reshuffling • 25%
Resignation of a defense official • 25%
Parliamentary inquiry • 25%
No significant political fallout • 25%
Other • 25%
Prisoner exchange deal secured • 25%
Ceasefire announced • 25%
Both prisoner exchange deal and ceasefire • 25%
Neither • 25%
No Change • 25%
Gallant Resigns • 25%
Netanyahu Changes Directive • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Remains Prime Minister • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Ousted by no-confidence vote • 25%
Other • 25%
Netanyahu remains Prime Minister • 25%
Netanyahu steps down • 25%
New elections called • 25%
New coalition government forms • 25%
Increased political support • 25%
Decreased political support • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Resignation or removal from office • 25%
Netanyahu resigns • 25%
Ceasefire deal reached • 25%
Both • 25%
Neither • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Netanyahu agrees to ceasefire • 25%
Netanyahu faces formal inquiry • 25%
Netanyahu resigns • 25%
Ben Gvir removed from position • 25%
Netanyahu takes no action • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
Other • 25%