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What will be the outcome of the Kremlin's assault on Kursk by January 20, 2024?
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Kremlin•Ukrainian Armed Forces•Kursk•Trump•Ukrainian•Zelensky•Russia•North Korea•Russian•North Korean•Kyiv•Sumy•Ukraine
Resolution / Starting Odds
Kursk retaken by Russia and North Korea • 25%
Kursk remains under Ukrainian control • 25%
Stalemate with no decisive control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian or Ukrainian government, verified by major international news agencies
Story
Kremlin Plans Major Assault to Retake Kursk Before Trump's Inauguration on January 20
Nov 11, 2024, 08:32 PM
The Kremlin has decided to drive the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region before January 20, the day of Trump's inauguration. This move is part of a larger strategy to prevent Ukrainian President Zelensky from manipulating the negotiating track. Tens of thousands of troops from Russia and North Korea are preparing for an assault on Ukrainian forces under a landmark new defense deal. More than 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops are reported to be bearing down on Kyiv’s forces, supported by kamikaze drone attacks. The Kremlin aims to use this counteroffensive to gain momentum and advance into the Sumy region of Ukraine.
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Russian victory with territory gained • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Ukrainian victory with territory retained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukrainian decisive victory • 25%
Russian decisive victory • 25%
Ongoing conflict with no clear victor • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Ukraine gains significant territory • 25%
Stalemate with minor changes • 25%
Russia regains lost territory • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant Russian Gains • 25%
Significant Ukrainian Gains • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Russian forces consolidate gains • 25%
Ukrainian forces reclaim territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia gains significant territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ukraine regains territory • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Major Russian victory • 25%
Minor Russian victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ukrainian defense holds • 25%
Russia regains full control • 25%
Ukraine maintains presence • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Russia controls entire region • 25%
Ukraine controls entire region • 25%
Region is contested • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Successful completion • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation into larger conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia gains control • 25%
Ukraine retains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other developments • 25%
Ukraine captures significant territory • 25%
Russia retains control of most areas • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in attacks • 25%
Decrease in attacks • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ceasefire or peace agreement • 25%