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What will be the outcome of the Israeli and Iranian conflict escalation by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Full-scale war • 25%
Limited military skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Verified news reports from reputable sources such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Missile Debris Kills Palestinian from Gaza in Nuweimah After Israeli Interception of Iranian Strike
Oct 1, 2024, 08:21 PM
An Iranian missile salvo resulted in the death of a Palestinian man in Nuweimah, near Jericho in the West Bank. The victim, identified as Sameh Al-Asali, originally from Gaza, was a laborer residing in the area. The incident occurred when remains of an Iranian ballistic missile, reportedly intercepted by Israeli air defenses, fell on him. Security footage captured the moment the missile debris struck and killed Al-Asali. Israeli sources report no casualties or injuries among Israelis from the missile attack, which was intended for Israel.
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Limited Skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale War • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Continued military engagements • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Major conflict escalation • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Full-scale military conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No further conflict escalation • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Israel attacks Iran • 25%
US intervenes • 25%
No military conflict • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant escalation • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Mediation by third party • 25%
Resolution through UN intervention • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Iran achieves its objectives • 25%
Israel successfully defends • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
De-escalation • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Resolution • 25%