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What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire framework negotiations by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire Agreement Signed • 25%
Hostages Released Without Ceasefire • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Partial Agreement Reached • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government, Hamas, or credible news sources like Reuters or the Associated Press
Story
Biden Announces Israel and Hamas Agree on Ceasefire and Hostage Release Framework
Jul 12, 2024, 03:58 PM
U.S. President Joe Biden announced that Israel and Hamas have agreed on a framework for a ceasefire and hostage release deal. This framework, which Biden laid out in May, aims to end the ongoing conflict in Gaza and facilitate the return of hostages. Despite the agreement on the framework, Biden noted that there are still gaps to close and complex issues to address. He emphasized that his diplomatic team is actively working in the region to finalize the details and that progress is being made, with a positive trend in negotiations. Biden reiterated his efforts to stop the war.
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Permanent ceasefire established • 25%
Temporary ceasefire established • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations collapse • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Formal ceasefire agreement • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached with Barghouti's release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached without Barghouti's release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage deal • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement Reached • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Partial Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Partial ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement not reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
Hostages released, no ceasefire • 25%
Hostages released, ceasefire agreed • 25%
No hostages released, ongoing conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Cease-fire agreement with hostage release • 25%
Cease-fire agreement without hostage release • 25%
No cease-fire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations abandoned • 25%
Complete adherence by both sides • 25%
Partial adherence with minor violations • 25%
Significant violations by either side • 25%
Complete breakdown of the ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreed but not implemented • 25%
Talks ongoing without resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreed without new conditions • 25%
Ceasefire agreed with new conditions • 25%
No ceasefire agreed • 25%
Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%