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What will be the outcome of the House vote on the new rules package by January 31, 2025?
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House Republicans•House Freedom Caucus•Main Street Caucus•Oversight and Accountability Committee•Diversity and Inclusion Office•House•Mike Johnson•GOP•Kevin McCarthy
Resolution / Starting Odds
Passed with majority • 25%
Failed to pass • 25%
Passed with amendments • 25%
Not voted on by deadline • 25%
Official vote records from the U.S. House of Representatives
Story
House GOP Raises Threshold to Nine Members for Speaker Ouster
Jan 1, 2025, 10:00 PM
House Republicans have unveiled a new rules package for the 119th Congress, which includes a significant change to the motion to vacate procedure. The threshold to initiate a no-confidence vote to oust the Speaker has been raised from one member to nine members of the majority party. This change, negotiated between the House Freedom Caucus and the Main Street Caucus in November, aims to address internal party divisions and stabilize leadership. Released on Wednesday, the rules package also includes other notable provisions, such as renaming the Oversight and Accountability Committee back to its former title, the Oversight and Government Reform Committee, and eliminating the Diversity and Inclusion Office. The House is expected to vote on the rules package on Friday, following the election of a Speaker. Speaker Mike Johnson, who has faced criticism from some conservatives, is seeking reelection but faces challenges due to the GOP's narrow majority. The changes come after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted in 2023 under the previous rules that allowed a single member to trigger a no-confidence vote.
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Mike Johnson • 25%
Another Republican candidate • 25%
Democratic candidate • 25%
No decision made • 25%
Passed with Democratic support • 25%
Passed with Republican majority • 25%
Passed with bipartisan support • 25%
Failed due to lack of majority • 25%
Another candidate elected • 25%
No Speaker elected on January 3, 2025 • 25%
Mike Johnson elected after multiple ballots • 25%
Mike Johnson elected on first ballot • 25%
Limits on Speaker accountability • 25%
Other • 25%
Renaming of committees • 25%
Elimination of Diversity and Inclusion office • 25%
Mike Johnson elected on subsequent ballot • 25%
Mike Johnson elected on first ballot • 25%
Democrat elected • 25%
Another Republican elected • 25%
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No vote held • 25%
Fails again • 25%
Passes with simple majority • 25%
Democrat • 33%
Republican • 33%
Other/Coalition • 34%
Another candidate wins • 25%
Mike Johnson wins • 25%
Byron Donalds wins • 25%
No winner on first ballot • 25%
Passes with slim margin • 25%
Fails to pass • 25%
Vote postponed • 25%
Passes with majority support • 25%
Pass with simple majority • 33%
Pass with two-thirds majority • 33%
Fail • 33%