Loading...
Market
Outcome of First Major House Vote in 2025?
2
Adam Gray•Republican•John Duarte•California•13th Congressional District•Democrats•Gray•Duarte•Democratic Party•House•Republicans•GOP•Democratic•House Republicans
Resolution / Starting Odds
Failed due to lack of majority • 25%
Passed with bipartisan support • 25%
Passed with Republican majority • 25%
Passed with Democratic support • 25%
Official vote records from the U.S. House of Representatives
Story
Adam Gray Wins California's 13th District by 187 Votes; GOP House Majority Narrows to 220-215
Dec 4, 2024, 12:26 PM
Democrat Adam Gray has defeated incumbent Republican Representative John Duarte in California's 13th Congressional District by a margin of 187 votes, flipping the seat for the Democrats. This was the final outstanding race from the 2024 U.S. House elections. With Gray's victory, which Duarte conceded without seeking a recount, the Democratic Party has narrowed the Republican majority in the House to 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats. This represents a net gain of one seat for the Democrats, who flipped seven GOP seats while Republicans flipped four Democratic seats. The Republican majority is now historically narrow, which may complicate the GOP's legislative agenda in the House. Additionally, due to some House Republicans being appointed to other positions, the GOP's working majority could be temporarily reduced to as low as two seats, giving them little margin for error in advancing legislation.
View original story
Similar markets
Passes with majority • 33%
Fails to pass • 33%
Withdrawn before vote • 34%
Mike Johnson remains Speaker • 25%
A new Speaker is elected • 25%
Speaker position remains vacant • 25%
Other • 25%
Passes with majority vote • 25%
Fails to pass • 25%
Postponed to 2025 • 25%
No vote taken • 25%
Passes • 50%
Fails • 50%
Passes with Republican support • 25%
Passes with bipartisan support • 25%
Fails due to Republican opposition • 25%
Fails due to lack of bipartisan support • 25%
Passes with majority • 33%
Fails to pass • 33%
Not voted on by deadline • 34%
Passes with simple majority • 25%
Passes with two-thirds majority • 25%
Fails again • 25%
No vote held • 25%
Passes as proposed • 25%
Fails to pass • 25%
Amended and passes • 25%
Postponed • 25%
Passes • 33%
Fails • 33%
Postponed • 34%
Pass with two-thirds majority • 33%
Pass with simple majority • 33%
Fail • 33%
Passes with majority • 33%
Fails to pass • 33%
Delayed without vote • 34%