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What will be the outcome of the Ethiopia-Somalia naval base dispute by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ethiopia builds base • 25%
Somalia gains control • 25%
Joint control • 25%
No base built • 25%
Official government announcements or credible news reports
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Somalia and Ethiopia Restore Diplomatic Ties After Turkey-Brokered Deal
Jan 11, 2025, 01:53 PM
Somalia and Ethiopia have agreed to restore and enhance their bilateral relations through full diplomatic representation in their respective capitals. This decision follows a visit by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to Addis Ababa at the invitation of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The leaders met to strengthen bilateral relations and advance shared priorities, marking a significant step towards improving relations strained by a year of tensions over Ethiopia's plans to build a naval base in the breakaway Somali region of Somaliland. The agreement builds on a peace deal brokered by Turkey last month, which aimed to resolve the dispute and facilitate technical negotiations between the two nations.
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Negotiations stalled • 25%
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