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What will be the outcome of the captured Wagner mercenaries in Mali by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Released • 25%
Executed • 25%
Exchanged • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from Malian government, credible international news sources
Story
Ukrainian Forces Allegedly Involved in Attack on Wagner in Mali: 80 Killed, 15 Captured
Jul 29, 2024, 02:11 PM
Russian propaganda has claimed that Ukrainian instructors were involved in an attack on Wagner mercenaries in Mali. This assertion follows an ambush by CSP militants that resulted in the deaths of 80 Wagner terrorists and the capture of 15. Unconfirmed reports suggest Ukrainian special forces played a role in the ambush. Observers have noted the presence of multiple Ukrainian GUR SOF advisors alongside Tuareg rebels in Mali. Ukrainian intelligence officials have hinted that these advisors are assisting various African rebels in their fight against Wagner, including in Mali. Some sources have confirmed the direct involvement of Ukrainian special forces, identified by their appearance and attire, in coordinating the attack and subsequently posing with a flag for a photograph.
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Similar markets
Handed over to Ukraine • 25%
Released by CSP-DPA and Azawad • 25%
Exchanged for Malian prisoners • 25%
Other • 25%
Released • 25%
Exchanged • 25%
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Unknown • 25%
Tried in Ukrainian courts • 25%
Exchanged in a prisoner swap • 25%
Released • 25%
Other • 25%
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Failed handover • 25%
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No attempt made • 25%
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Released • 25%
Still in captivity • 25%
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Rescued • 25%
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Still Captured • 25%
Malian forces and Wagner mercenaries win • 25%
Tuareg rebels win • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
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Tuareg rebels gain control of more territory • 25%
Malian forces regain control of lost territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Russia • 25%
Mali • 25%
Other • 25%