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What will be the outcome of Russia's demand for security guarantees by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal security guarantees granted • 25%
Informal assurances granted • 25%
No guarantees granted • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Official statements from the Russian government or involved international bodies, reported by credible news agencies.
Story
Russia Rejects Trump's Call for Ukraine Ceasefire; Lavrov Seeks Security Guarantees After Three Years of Conflict
Dec 26, 2024, 02:15 PM
Russia has rejected incoming U.S. President Donald Trump's call for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, stating instead that it is willing to engage in negotiations for a long-lasting peace agreement to conclude nearly three years of conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov characterized a ceasefire as a 'road to nowhere,' arguing that it would allow Ukraine to strengthen its military capabilities. Lavrov emphasized the need for security guarantees in any future discussions, indicating that Russia is looking for a binding deal that ensures peace and security for itself and its neighbors.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New arms control agreement • 25%
Increased tensions without agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation to armed conflict • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Improved Relations • 25%
No Change • 25%
Deteriorated Relations • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Increased tensions with NATO • 25%
Improved relations with NATO • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant outcome • 25%
Increased airstrikes in Ukraine • 25%
Cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Russia attacks Kyiv non-nuclearly • 25%
Russia does not attack Kyiv • 25%
Russia attacks another Ukrainian city • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful prevention • 25%
Failed prevention • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Escalation to conflict • 25%
Increased global nuclear armament • 25%
New nuclear disarmament talks • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Support for Ukraine • 25%
Calls for negotiation • 25%
No significant response • 25%