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What will be the outcome of Russia-NATO tensions by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Economic sanctions imposed • 25%
Official diplomatic announcements or credible international news sources
Story
Russia's Lavrov Warns of Direct Conflict with U.S., Calls West's Actions a 'Suicidal Adventure' Before U.S. Election
Nov 4, 2024, 09:36 AM
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that the United States and Russia are close to engaging in direct military conflict, citing actions by the US and NATO. In an interview published on November 1, 2024, just days ahead of the U.S. presidential election, Lavrov accused the 'Anglo-Saxon powers' of preparing Europe for a 'suicidal' direct conflict with Russia if Ukraine fails. Speaking at the 'Creating the Future' International Symposium, he stated that NATO intends to conduct 'defensive battles' thousands of miles from its own territory and suggested that Western elites see no future in a multipolar world.
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Improved relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severed diplomatic relations • 25%
Increased military engagements • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relationship • 25%
Deteriorated relationship • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant diplomatic incident • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased military presence on borders • 25%
Diplomatic sanctions or actions • 25%
Cyberattacks attributed to Russia • 25%
No significant increase in tensions • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
No talks held • 25%
Maintain current strategy • 25%
Adopt more aggressive strategy • 25%
Adopt more diplomatic strategy • 25%
No consensus reached • 25%
Increase in military support to Ukraine • 25%
Direct military engagement with Russia • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in military support to Ukraine • 25%