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What will be the outcome of Ronald Johnson's efforts to combat organized crime in Mexico by end of 2025?
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Donald Trump•United States•Ronald Johnson•Mexico•Johnson•Green Berets•CIA•El Salvador•Trump•America•Iraq•Afghanistan•Mexican•Claudia Sheinbaum•Nayib Bukele•Marco Rubio
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant reduction in organized crime • 25%
Moderate reduction in organized crime • 25%
No significant change in organized crime • 25%
Increase in organized crime • 25%
Reports from U.S. and Mexican government agencies or international crime indices
Story
Trump Names Ronald Johnson Ambassador to Mexico, Targets Fentanyl Trafficking with Rubio's Support
Dec 12, 2024, 09:00 PM
Donald Trump, the president-elect of the United States, has nominated Ronald Johnson as the next U.S. ambassador to Mexico. Johnson, a former Green Berets officer and CIA operative, previously served as the U.S. ambassador to El Salvador during Trump’s first term. His appointment is seen as a strategic move to address key issues such as illegal immigration, fentanyl trafficking, and organized crime. Trump emphasized that the U.S. embassy in Mexico will play a crucial role in combating these challenges, stating, "Together, we will end crimes committed by migrants, stop the illegal flow of fentanyl and other dangerous drugs into our country, and make America safe again." Johnson’s military and intelligence background, including operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, positions him as an experienced figure for this role. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has stated that her government will collaborate with Johnson while respecting national sovereignty. Johnson’s tenure in El Salvador was marked by efforts to reduce violent crime and illegal migration, often working closely with President Nayib Bukele. Marco Rubio, chosen as Secretary of State, is expected to support these efforts.
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Military cooperation • 25%
Bilateral agreements • 25%
Economic incentives • 25%
Strict enforcement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Uncertain outcome • 25%
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No • 50%
Significant reduction in drug trafficking • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in drug trafficking • 25%
Unclear outcome • 25%
Significant reduction in operations • 25%
Moderate reduction in operations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in operations • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Decreased cooperation • 25%
Unchanged cooperation • 25%
Deterioration of relations • 25%
Successful with significant disruption • 25%
Limited success • 25%
Failure with no significant impact • 25%
No military action taken • 25%
Significant reduction in violence • 25%
Moderate reduction in violence • 25%
No change in violence levels • 25%
Increase in violence • 25%
One faction emerges dominant • 25%
Cartel splits into multiple independent groups • 25%
Cartel leadership remains unchanged • 25%
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Combating illegal migration • 25%
Fentanyl trafficking • 25%
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Significant disruption of cartel operations • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
New bilateral agreements • 25%