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What will be the outcome of potential military actions involving Iran's nuclear facilities by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No military action • 25%
Only Israel strikes • 25%
Only U.S. strikes • 25%
Both Israel and U.S. strike • 25%
Reports from international news agencies, official government statements from involved countries
Story
After November Meeting, Israeli Minister Ron Dermer Believes Trump Will Support Military Action Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities
Jan 6, 2025, 03:09 PM
Following a meeting in November, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer reportedly concluded that U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to support or even initiate a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. This assessment, based on information from Axios and two unnamed sources, suggests that Trump may back an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) operation or order a U.S. strike. Dermer's impressions were shaped by discussions held at Mar-a-Lago, where the potential for military action against Iran's nuclear program was a focal point. Analysts note that Israel possesses various capabilities to target Iran's nuclear infrastructure if it chooses to proceed with such an operation.
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No military action • 25%
Limited strikes • 25%
Other • 25%
Full-scale military intervention • 25%
Unsuccessful strikes • 25%
No strikes conducted • 25%
Successful strikes with no retaliation • 25%
Successful strikes with Iranian retaliation • 25%
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
No military action occurs • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Full-scale military conflict • 25%
Limited airstrikes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military intervention occurs • 25%
New sanctions imposed on Iran • 25%
Iran complies with nuclear deal terms • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
Successful hostage release • 25%
No military action • 25%
Air strikes on Iranian targets • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Naval blockade • 25%
Military action • 25%
Transfer of military equipment to allies • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic efforts only • 25%
Exercises partially completed • 25%
Exercises completed successfully • 25%
Exercises canceled • 25%
Exercises disrupted by external factors • 25%
New Sanctions • 25%
Airstrikes • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
No Action • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%