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What will be the outcome of Polish consulate closures in Russia by April 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Only St. Petersburg consulate closed • 25%
All consulates closed • 25%
No further closures • 25%
Reopened consulate(s) • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian Foreign Ministry or credible news sources
Story
Russia to Close Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg on January 10; Expels Diplomats Amid Espionage Row
Dec 5, 2024, 03:12 PM
On December 5, Russia announced the closure of Poland's Consulate General in St. Petersburg in response to Poland's decision to shut down the Russian consulate in Poznan. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that the Polish consulate would cease operations starting January 10, 2025. The closure is linked to espionage accusations. Additionally, Russia declared three diplomats from the Polish consulate in St. Petersburg as personae non gratae, requiring them to leave the country. This move escalates the diplomatic tensions between the two countries. In retaliation, Poland's Foreign Minister Sikorski threatened to close all remaining Russian consular offices in Poland if "sabotage and terrorist acts continue."
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Resolved diplomatically • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Escalated to EU intervention • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
More restrictive • 25%
No change • 25%
Less restrictive • 25%
Unclear • 25%
No Change • 25%
Relocation of Embassy • 25%
Closure of Embassy • 25%
Enhanced Security Measures • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other • 25%
Issue similar advisory • 25%
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Portugal • 25%
Albania • 25%