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What will be the outcome of PA mail-in ballot counting rules post-2024 Senate race by Jun 30, 2025?
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Pennsylvania Supreme Court•Democratic•Republican Dave McCormick•Bob Casey•McCormick•Casey•Republican National Committee•Bucks•Montgomery•Philadelphia•Centre
Resolution / Starting Odds
Stricter rules implemented • 33%
Looser rules implemented • 33%
No change • 33%
Legislative records from the Pennsylvania General Assembly or official announcements
Story
Democratic-Majority Pa. Supreme Court Unanimously Halts Counting of Misdated Ballots in Senate Race
Nov 18, 2024, 09:16 PM
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court, which has a Democratic majority, has unanimously ordered counties to cease counting misdated and undated mail-in ballots in the U.S. Senate race between Republican Dave McCormick and Democratic incumbent Bob Casey. With 99% of votes counted, McCormick leads Casey by approximately 17,000 votes. The ruling came after the McCormick campaign and the Republican National Committee filed a lawsuit, as some counties—including Bucks, Montgomery, Philadelphia, and Centre—were counting these invalid ballots despite previous court rulings. The court specified that such ballots "shall not be counted" and are to be removed from the vote totals. Bob Casey has not conceded the race, which is heading to a recount due to the narrow margin.
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Smooth process with no major issues • 25%
Minor issues but no significant impact • 25%
Major issues but resolved before election day • 25%
Major issues impacting election day • 25%
McCormick's victory upheld • 25%
Casey declared winner • 25%
Re-election ordered • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Slight reduction in counted votes • 25%
Moderate reduction in counted votes • 25%
Significant reduction in counted votes • 25%
David McCormick wins • 33%
Bob Casey wins • 33%
Recount inconclusive • 34%
Disputed ballots included • 25%
Disputed ballots excluded • 25%
Partial inclusion of disputed ballots • 25%
Case dismissed without decision • 25%
Ruling Upheld • 25%
Ruling Overturned • 25%
Ruling Modified • 25%
Appeal Withdrawn • 25%
Republican hold • 25%
Democratic gain • 25%
Third-party gain • 25%
Other • 25%
Ruling in favor of McCormick • 33%
Ruling in favor of Casey • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
